Migration from California has helped change Colorado from a libertarian-inflected reddish state into a solid-blue one. And now blue Colorado is starting to turn into California.
The state’s remarkable demographic reversal provides the clearest evidence of this transformation. Recent Census numbers show Colorado losing more than 12,000 residents to other states last year, while its total population growth is anemic. The metro area of Denver, once a city with buzz as hot as Austin or Nashville, is now growing more slowly than Midwestern cities like Indianapolis and Columbus. The state’s labor force has also started shrinking—something the Denver Post notes has “never happened outside a severe recession or economic shock like the COVID-19 pandemic.”
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Not so long ago, Colorado was one of America’s booming destinations. During the 1990s, its population grew by over 30 percent, adding more than 1 million residents. Between just 1990 and 1997, Colorado attracted nearly 110,000 migrants from California, about six times the number from any other state. The state also grew in the 2000s and 2010s.
One reason for this demographic decline may be another way in which Colorado is converging with California: high housing prices. Redfin ranks the state as the fourth-most expensive in which to buy a home. In the Denver market, the average family needs to spend more than six times its annual income to buy the average home. (A rule of thumb for affordability is to spend no more than three times your annual income.)
Weak demographics, a stagnant or declining labor force, and sky-high housing prices bode ill for the state’s ability to attract business. Colorado is not like New York City or San Francisco, elite global cities where workers will pay any price for access to agglomerations of high-value industries or the feeling of being at the center of the universe.
Instead, Colorado is shedding companies. TIAA is closing its large Denver office and moving 1,000 employees to Frisco, Texas. Call-center company TTEC has moved its headquarters from Colorado to Austin. Several other firms have implemented layoffs or chosen to expand elsewhere. The problem is so bad that the Colorado Chamber of Commerce now maintains a relocation tracker.
It’s hard to identify a single decision that caused these trends, but broadly speaking, California-style blue governance is the culprit.
Take infrastructure. Driven in part by a law mandating a 90 percent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions, the state has effectively abandoned building or expanding highways. Instead, it has poured cash into light rail and other forms of public transit. Unlike New York or Chicago, where public transit has historically played a major role, there’s little hope that light rail will serve the needs of a sprawling city like Denver. These rail investments are also a huge maintenance liability. Riders have already begun to experience the periodic slowdowns familiar to train riders in other cities with deferred maintenance issues.
Other California-style measures include an anti-gun law last year and a law limiting cooperation with federal immigration enforcement—passed after the state had made national news with Venezuelan illegals engaging in gang activity. The legislature also tried to make it easier for unions to require compulsory representation payments from non-members. Governor Jared Polis vetoed it, but proponents plan to keep pushing for it.
Colorado has also started targeting politically unpopular people and businesses. In 2024, Denver considered a ballot initiative to force the closure of the city’s lone meatpacking plant. The measure failed, but only after opponents spent $2.4 million to defeat it. Targeting specific businesses for elimination speaks poorly of the city’s business climate, as does the now-infamous litigation against Masterpiece Cakeshop for refusing to create cakes with messages that violated the conscience of its owner.
With its top-quality natural amenities and highly educated workforce, Colorado won’t collapse anytime soon. And it hasn’t reached California’s level of crazy—yet.
But Colorado has become a cautionary tale of what happens when Democrats and Golden State refugees capture a state’s politics. The high housing prices, demographic stagnation, and business weakness in California are not accidents—they are the consequences of a political culture that produces similar results wherever it takes hold.
Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images