On a night of Democratic upsets nationwide, New York’s top races went as expected, with easy Democratic wins. Down ballot, however, the results spell big trouble for state Republicans.
Governor Kathy Hochul beat Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman roughly 60 percent to 40 percent, a better showing by the governor than her six-point victory over Lee Zeldin four years ago. By nearly identical margins, Attorney General Letitia James won a third term over impressive Saritha Komatireddy, a former federal prosecutor. Comptroller Tom DiNapoli defeated Joseph Hernandez by roughly two to one.
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From the outset, Blakeman’s campaign appeared to be a get-out-the-vote play for Nassau County local races, a reaction to state Democrats ending odd-year local elections outside the city. Blakeman jumped in against Rep. Elise Stefanik, who quit the race after Trump declined to back her. Trump endorsed Blakeman the next day and held a rally for him last month. But for his trouble, the president saw Hochul defeat Blakeman in his home county last night and Democrats chalk up unexpected wins in the county executive’s backyard.
The most closely watched congressional contest, Hudson Valley’s NY-17, witnessed Democrat and Army veteran Cait Conley unseat two-term incumbent Mike Lawler. What were expected to be safe Republican seats, meantime, in some cases proved tight. In NY-1, covering the eastern half of Long Island, Rep. Nick LaLota declared victory over Democrat Christopher Gallant with a lead far smaller than the 10 points by which Trump had most recently carried the district. In NY-21, the North Country seat Elise Stefanik won by roughly 24 points two years ago, controversial (and Trump-endorsed) businessman Anthony Constantino defeated dairy farmer Blake Gendebien with only a two-point margin.
In Albany, Democrats regained their veto-proof legislative supermajority. In southern Brooklyn, one of the few corners of the city where Republicans had gained steam over the past four years, Democrats swept four competitive legislative seats.
City voters, meantime, approved all five charter amendments put forward by Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s Charter Revision Commission. These relatively unimportant measures mostly make procedural changes that reduce regulatory friction around approvals for things like sidewalk dining permits, public procurement, bike and bus lanes, and construction permits. The last measure, concerning the city’s Rainy Day Fund, set a savings goal with no mechanism behind it—a fig leaf for a city staring down another fiscal shortfall.
Republicans’ drubbing, nationally and in New York, came in large part from failing to answer voters’ most pressing concerns. Blakeman spent months describing a state in collapse, led by “the worst governor in America” and her socialist ally in charge of a lawless urban hellscape. Most New Yorkers didn’t recognize the state he described. For all its problems, New York boasts the country’s most vibrant city and record tax collections.
Though Hochul faced headwinds—rising electricity prices, economic stagnation, and lingering concerns about crime categories like felony assault—Blakeman failed to turn any of them into a real liability. He didn’t proffer a clear vision for the state and regularly struggled to explain how he’d achieve his objectives. City voters—who Blakeman needed to take by a share larger than Zeldin’s 30 percent—could see that his portrait was as disconnected from reality as his policy proposals.
His signature promise, quickly to cut electric bills in half, didn’t come with a reasonable explanation. A governor might trim taxes and surcharges at the margin (and not on day one), but short of having taxpayers subsidize ratepayers, no governor can halve a bill.
Blakeman also pandered to some of the worst populist elements, including New York NIMBYs. Amid severe housing unaffordability driven by a shortage, Blakeman celebrated the current land-use scheme and took credit for raising Nassau residents’ property values.
On labor, where a Republican could have drawn a real contrast, Blakeman sided with public-sector unions, thwarting the potential for reform. He courted transit and building-trades locals and campaigned with the correction officers’ union—despite its members’ illegal 22-day wildcat strike last year that ended with over 2,000 officers fired. Most Democrats feel little choice but to kowtow to the unions. Blakeman had the freedom not to do so, yet he threw away the chance to run on delivering better public services.
For years, the New York Republican Party has failed to check one-party government because it has no brand of its own, differentiated from the national party. Yesterday’s results merely made that clearer than ever. Blakeman tried to offset that by periodically blurting that he was “pro-choice” on abortion. But there is no serious GOP effort to offer a workable reform agenda.
New York has real problems, including the nation’s highest tax burden and associated affordability issues, public-sector work rules that make government services more expensive, a housing shortage, and utility bills padded with property taxes that voters never see. Each problem has a credible response that Democrats aren’t offering. The state GOP showed little interest in any of them.
None of this should have surprised anyone who tracked the city race last November. The backlash against the Trump administration took shape in the five boroughs first, in a mayoral race that drew far higher than usual turnout. About 690,000 New York City voters cast their ballots early this year, up roughly 60 percent from 432,600 in 2022.
It’s notable that next door, Vermont’s Republican governor, Phil Scott, held on, even as Vermonters elected Democratic supermajorities in both legislative chambers. He is now headed for a record sixth term. Scott has spent a decade keeping his distance from the national party, pressing on affordability and taking up fights on concrete policy issues like school funding.
New York Republicans have conspicuously avoided any serious introspective or after-action analysis following recent election defeats. Their party doesn’t have answers. That should prompt some questions.