A new Manhattan Institute poll shows former governor Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead over Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s June 24 Democratic mayoral primary: 56 percent to 44 percent in the final round of our ranked-choice simulation. That’s a striking result, given the steady stream of social media spin and sympathetic headlines describing a Mamdani “surge.” The numbers tell a different story—and reveal something deeper about the state of politics in Gotham.
Cuomo’s advantage isn’t just about name recognition or nostalgia. It reflects who bears the brunt of disorder—and who’s prepared to vote accordingly. Among Democratic primary voters who list crime as their top concern, 71 percent rank Cuomo first, compared with just 6 percent for Mamdani. The gap is even wider among women: of those who prioritize crime, 80 percent support Cuomo in the first round, compared with 3 percent for Mamdani. Even among women who don’t list crime as their top issue, Cuomo still leads Mamdani by four points.
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In a city where many public officials and media outlets are eager to declare victory over crime, visible disorder—fare evasion, open-air drug use, severe mental illness on the subway—remains a daily reality, especially for outer-borough women. These are voters who rely on public transit, endure long commutes, and can’t shield themselves from dysfunction the way wealthier New Yorkers can—or men, who tend to feel less threatened in public space. That may help explain why women in the Democratic primary back Cuomo by a 19-point margin overall, and why they’re significantly more pessimistic about the city’s direction than men are.
This is the coalition holding Mamdani back. The data challenge his base’s self-conception as a grassroots movement of working-class, “black and brown” New Yorkers. Voters listing Mamdani as their first choice are overwhelmingly young, college-educated, and clustered in progressive enclaves. Among 18–34-year-old college graduates, 67 percent rank him first. Among black Democratic primary voters overall, he trails Cuomo by 23 points.
The myth of Mamdani’s multiracial working-class base has been propped up by a mix of posturing, projection, and selective polling. Most notably, a recent survey commissioned by Councilman Justin Brannan and conducted by Public Policy Polling—widely promoted in progressive media—claimed to find Mamdani in first place. But the poll failed to simulate ranked-choice voting, the method used in New York’s primaries.
These narrative-building exercises aren’t aimed at predicting election outcomes so much as boosting supporter morale and keeping donors engaged. But there's a real risk for Mamdani: as his name recognition grows, so do his negatives. In our poll, he is already 23 points underwater with independents.
Still, Mamdani’s support isn’t negligible. If young voter turnout doubles or triples its usual share, the race tightens—and the socialist millennial could win. In a high-turnout scenario, the gap between the candidates shrinks to statistical parity.
The story won’t end on Tuesday. Cuomo has already secured a new “Fight and Deliver” independent ballot line, making it almost certain he’ll appear in the general election, regardless of the primary outcome. Mamdani may do the same via the Working Families Party. Add Mayor Eric Adams (running as an independent), Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, and lesser-known independent Jim Walden, and New York could face its first truly competitive multi-candidate general mayoral election in over half a century.
In that five-way race, Cuomo remains the strongest contender. In our poll, he leads with 39 percent, followed by Mamdani at 25 percent, Sliwa at 12 percent, and Adams at 10 percent. Notably, Mamdani fares worse without Cuomo in the race than Cuomo does without Mamdani—evidence of the former governor’s broader general-election appeal. The trend holds across multiple matchups: Mamdani consistently underperforms with independents and nonwhite voters, while Cuomo draws a more stable coalition of center-left and working-class support.
What voters seem to be signaling, then, isn’t a desire to blow up the political order, but a need to correct it. Nearly two-thirds of likely voters say the city is on the wrong track, and their priorities reflect an electorate that recognizes the persistence of disorder. Across racial and partisan lines, majorities support putting more police on the streets, cracking down on fare evasion and public drug use, and tightening immigration enforcement. On these fronts, Mamdani’s coalition stands apart from the growing consensus.
That’s the quiet story of this election: a backlash not just against progressive policies but against the culture of abstraction and righteousness that produced them. Voters aren’t demanding radical change; they’re demanding competence, safety, and seriousness. And for all of Cuomo’s baggage, he’s benefiting from the perception that he takes governing seriously—and Mamdani does not.
This is not a realignment in the traditional sense. New York remains a deeply Democratic city. But it may be the beginning of a political recalibration—one in which public-order mothers, working-class renters, and outer-borough strivers reassert themselves against the highly online progressive class.
The longer-term challenge for New York Democrats is whether they can recognize that shift and adjust accordingly. If not, they may find themselves outmaneuvered—not just by Cuomo, but by independents and insurgents attuned to the city’s exhausted political center.
Photo by Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images