Last week’s elections brought another round of victories by far-left candidates in Democratic primaries, continuing a trend that emerged earlier this year in states like New York and Colorado. In response to the results, the National Republican Senatorial Campaign dropped a quick ad attacking Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary winner, Abdul El-Sayed, as “the most radical Senate candidate in America.” The ad embodied an increasingly prevalent GOP strategy for the midterms: focusing on a radicalized Democratic Party rather than promoting Republican candidates and the party’s agenda.
This framing is not only evident in party ads and candidate speeches but also in discussions of this November’s elections across conservative podcasts, social media, and commentary. Republicans are banking on an approach that labels Democratic candidates and the party’s proposals as too radical and out of touch for American voters. “Swing voters have a persistent fear the Democrats will just go too far left,” a GOP pollster recently told Axios. “So we can make the case that yeah, we suck. But they’re worse.”
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The only problem with this tactic is that it doesn’t work with a big chunk of the electorate, especially if you’re an unpopular incumbent. A substantial number of voters, studies show, are more likely to vote against an incumbent politician or regime whose performance has disappointed and angered them than they are to reject challengers whose agenda they might question. One poll has already found that being branded MAGA is a turnoff with more voters than being called a socialist. Unless Republicans make the case for their agenda, including explaining why they’ve come up short in crucial areas like taming inflation and making headway on affordability, they are likely to hand Congress to a radicalized Democratic Party.
The numbers are undeniable. The RealClearPolling average of 16 voter surveys gives President Trump a 39 percent favorability rating, the lowest of his second term. Among increasingly important independent voters, who may decide elections in several states, Trump’s favorability sits at an anemic 27 percent, according to a recent Ipsos survey. On crucial issues from the presidential election, independents rank his performance as poor. Fewer than a quarter give him favorable ratings on affordability and inflation. Fewer than three in ten rate him as doing a good job on the overall economy. The war in Iran is also extremely unpopular.
These numbers have translated into weak approval for Republicans in Congress. Despite persistent tales of the Democratic radicalization, generic polling (not naming specific candidates) shows the party with about an eight-point edge over Republicans for November’s midterm elections. Even worse, while some Republican campaign strategists hope to boost GOP turnout amid the emergence of extremist Democrat candidates, several polls show that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting in the midterms than Republicans.
These disapproval numbers come during a period of rising frustration and anger among voters of both parties toward Washington. That’s a bigger problem for Republicans as the incumbent party. “Anger is stronger than fear” in elections, one expert found. Challengers in such environments hold an advantage with voters, who, given their hostility toward the incumbents, are less likely to scrutinize campaign agendas. Though it might seem naïve, some voters may simply hear from socialist candidates that they want to restrain prices of everyday items and make housing more affordable—without looking closely at how these candidates would accomplish these objectives. That may explain why in one poll, though a majority of those surveyed said they wouldn’t support a socialist candidate, members of the DSA nonetheless enjoyed a higher favorability rating among all voters than candidates identified as MAGA. In part, that’s because a strategy of relentlessly telling voters how radical the Democrats have become does little to improve voters’ perceptions of Republican policies.
The decline in voters’ view of the GOP, especially on the crucial issues of the economy, inflation, and affordability, has gathered momentum since at least the early spring. Yet neither the Trump administration nor the Republican Congress has shown much urgency to develop new initiatives that might bolster the GOP position. On economic matters, the administration has reverted to a strategy it derided during the Biden years—claiming the economy is much better than people perceive. Administration spokesmen point to favorable indicators like GDP growth, but most Americans care more about gas and grocery prices. Meantime, Trump’s tariff policy has yet to reshape the manufacturing landscape in ways he’s predicted, and half of Americans, according to one poll, blame these levies at least partially for higher everyday prices. In addition, the impact of the war in Iran at the pump has undermined the administration’s efforts to reduce energy costs by unleashing more drilling and other exploration.
What’s emerging is one of the most unusual midterm elections in decades, in which some extreme candidates with views considered unpalatable may ride to victory on a wave of anti-incumbent anger. Republicans don’t have much time to turn things around—and imagining that they can succeed without offering voters a better version of their own agenda is likely a losing proposition.