Once reliably Republican, Arizona is up for grabs. The state has toggled between the parties in the past two presidential elections, voting for Joe Biden (narrowly) and for Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly (more comfortably) in 2020, after voting for Donald Trump (narrowly) and for Republican Senate incumbent John McCain (more comfortably) in 2016. This November, the state’s electoral results may hinge on which candidate better addresses voters’ economic and public-order concerns.
Like the rest of the country, Arizonans are grappling with higher prices. My organization, the Common Sense Institute (CSI), recently found that the typical Arizona household spends about $1,000 more monthly to purchase the same bundle of goods as they did four years ago. And while nominal wages are rising, real household income (adjusted for cost-of-living) is declining. In fact, real hourly wages have fallen 7.4 percent in the state since their 2020 peak. Arizonans work longer hours and earn larger paychecks today than ever before, but due to inflation can buy less with their money.
Moreover, many in the Grand Canyon State see homeownership as out of reach. Arizona home prices have risen more than 56 percent over the past five years—the 11th-fastest increase in the country, according to Zillow. The typical home now costs over $430,000; the price tag is even higher in the booming and well-populated greater Phoenix area.
Arizonans have also seen marked declines in various quality-of-life measures. After trending downward for 30 years, crime (especially violent crime) began rising in 2020; though the numbers came down last year, they remain above 2019 levels. Homelessness is up, too, even as the state spends up to $1.1 billion on services—about $40,000 per homeless person—per CSI estimates. Public nuisances associated with the unsheltered homeless, including tents and open drug use, remain a part of Arizona’s urban landscapes. Both homelessness and crime have worsened; the state’s devastating fentanyl problem, partially driven by Arizona’s porous southern border, undoubtedly contributes.
Pundits often dismiss concerns about crime and inflation by citing recent declines in both indictors. They miss the point: voters care about real levels, not rates of change. When consumers go to the grocery store, they notice that bread today is much more expensive than it was five years ago; it’s little comfort that the price isn’t going up as rapidly as before. Likewise, even if crime rates are down year-over-year, people know that total crime remains higher than before the 2020 spike.
Arizona’s voters have real concerns—but reason for optimism, too. After its “lost decade” between roughly 2005 and 2015, when it experienced almost no growth, the state has become an economic dynamo. Arizona has enjoyed an average annual job-growth rate of 3.7 percent over the past five years, after averaging just 0.7 percent annually between 2000 and 2015. The state is in good fiscal health; then-governor Doug Ducey had fashioned a structurally sound, fiscally balanced budget by 2017. Arizona is also attracting newcomers, as more than 100,000 people, on net, moved to the state in 2020 alone.
How did Arizona do it? Reform efforts began in 2012 with the creation of the Arizona Commerce Authority, the slashing of business tax rates, and the lifting of regulatory barriers, setting the state on a pro-growth trajectory. As a result, manufacturing employment began growing again; the manufacturing sector is 20 percent larger today than in 2015. Following years of local investment by Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor this year announced a $65 billion planned investment in semiconductor manufacturing in Phoenix’s “Silicon Valley of the Desert.”
While national headwinds have cost Arizonans in recent years, the state has built a solid economic and political foundation. Come November, Grand Canyon State voters will decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is more likely to bring relief.
Photo by OLIVIER TOURON/AFP via Getty Images