"In sum, it was the Giuliani mayoralty, along with the extraordinary growth in stock values set in motion by the Reagan presidency, that together have been the sine qua non for New York’s two-and-a-half candidates."

An excellent analysis for explaining the two actual NY candidates in the race, but you leave out the key factor in recent history that explains and enables the "half-candidate." To paraphrase Sen. Clinton, "It takes a Supreme Court decision." Don't forget that what Mayor Bloomberg is talking about doing -- buying the Presidency -- is still a felony under federal laws, passed as recently as 1974 (and voted on by many sitting members of Congress). It is only because the limits on self-funding a candidacy for federal office have been declared unenforceable in Buckley v. Valeo that Mayor Bloomberg can even entertain the idea of entering the Presidential race at this late date. Without that Supreme Court decision, we would have had no Ross Perot candidacy (and arguably no Clinton Presidency, as well as no Sen. Clinton); no Steve Forbes candicacy; no Mitt Romney candidacy; as well as no Sen./Gov. Corzine. I leave it to others to say whether this Court decision has been a bane or boon to our national life.

Great article, but you're about 2 months' late. Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Giuliani are not going to win their parties' nominations.