City Journal Autumn 2014

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Autumn 2014
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Aaron M. Renn
Leaving Town « Back to Story

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I've heard many Californians are moving to Colorado - the New Blue/Environmental Wacko Paradise.....other than kicking those anti-gun crazies out of the State Senate. What's everyone else hearing?
Start spreadin' the news...
Lax immigration regulation and lavish public benefits for "the poor" have lots to do with this. If you venture out of Manhattan, you'll see what I mean. Large districts of NYC are inhabited by Third World type inhabitants, with lifestyles (!) subsidized by government support. They cost far more than they contribute. Unless you buy into the risible notion their presence contributes to the "rich tapestry of a diverse multicultural community." Personally I might want to live in New York. Couldn't possibly afford it! And, being born-USA (as were all grandparents and even beyond)...white, blond, educated, etc., I don't qualify for such benefits and anyway would soon be beaten down or murdered if I tried to live in public housing there... Philadelphia is better. Much cheaper, with much of the same big city cultural benefits like the Philadelphia Orchestra, the museums, the colleges. At about half the expense!
The foreign immigrants in NYC are hugely Muslim and largely illegal. Yeah, I'll bet NYC is Americanizing them. That's why if one walks nowadays around NYC one sees so many women in Muslim head garb.

Lol.
Just as the people of California and Illinois are fleeing the high tax and regulation states NY is joining the ranks of the 60% tax rate states. The only people that are staying are the ones that live off the governments largess. This largess is both for the non working, food stamps and welfare, to the really big bucks of no bid government contracts and large camping contributions. The people that suffer the most with this exodus is the working people and the poor. The loss of jobs were the companies close and the people on the liberal plantation with no hope of escape
Americans have been voting with their feet for several decades now.
Fleeing high tax Blue states for job and business friendly Red states . . . and taking their Representatives with them.
Look at the growth rates of CA., IL. and NY - all single digit then GA., TN., and TX - all in the teens.
Hence the reason Democrats want illegal immigration.
We get it, libtards vote stupid then the go to the the place that is smart and f u ck that place up too
This story makes me feel happy I have spent 61 wonderful years going no where near the State of New York.
Migration from Jew York to Miami.

The Liberal Democrat Express.

Been going on for Decades....nothing new here.
wait til this clown di blasio becomes mayor. his economic ideas are straight out of progressive lunacy 101, and when they come to roost on the city, in combination with idiotic restrictions on effective policing, people will flee that rathole like never before. so glad i already left.....
New York great place to live if you work for State, County, or City. New York great place to collect welfare. NY Loves welfare people and government workers
Diblasio wants to further tax the rich, so more will be leaving. There on the path ca took.
Thanks for telling us where the fleeing New Yorkers went so I won't visit those places either.
New Yorkers like to embrace liberal social policies and taxes. At least that's what they say. Yet those that can seem to be voting with their feet by moving AWAY from high tax areas. Sooner or later the balance tips and those international immigrants are faced with reduction in public services and higher cost of living. No city can survive without a residential tax base. Liberalism pushes middle class families out of cities.
If sun belt states, and other emigration destination states like Pa, were smart they would try to cater to republican NYorkers. The problem is that hypocritical NY democrats emigrate primarily to avoid lethal taxes, but they continue to vote demo in their new destination. Look at poor Miami-Dade, Broward, and even lovely Bucks County, PA. These former bucolic red counties are now dark blue to purple. The destruction begins again.
tax them and they will leave. combine it with crime and bad weather and who really wants to stay there? At least we know they are in Florida so we can stay away from them there too.
Allentown? Allentown? What in the name of God would a New Yorker do in Allentown?
Retirees are the BEST residents. They don't have kids, but pay property taxes. They don't commute so they don't clog roads and subways. They are very low crime, so they don't use up police resources. Could not ask for better residents from a tax and spend perspective.
I was born and raised in Detroit so I totally get it. This is exactly what happened to Detroit. I moved to California many years ago and have watched the same process. My wife and I left California in 2006. Why? California was hitting us up for 10% per year in income taxes, housing was much more expensive than Texas. So, we live in Houston now. Best move we made.
Never fear before long the liberals with realize that Maker,s do not like their Tax and waste government and will put a moving tax on them that will bankrupt them to the extent they cannot afford to move.
"...the top state in grabbing New York income."

It's not New York's income, it's the income of the people who worked to earn it. The attitude that individual income is government's to seize at whim is one of the things that's driving people out of high-tax regions.
I live in Atlanta, having moved here in 1985.

None of my neighbors were born here. They come from New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, and other places with high costs of living, high taxes, and business hostile governments. Once they settle here they never leave.

I love to visit New York city. I love the people, the diversity of everything, and the enery. But I would never live thete.
And instead of recognizing that liberal tax and spend policies are causing this flight from NY, the Dems will angrily blame those who leave as unpatriotic for not wanting to pay their taxes (just as they do to those US citizens who leave the country). As usual, the libs are completely tone deaf and happily will march to the tune of their socialist music right off the edge of a cliff.
It's going to get a lot worse if "Red Bill" de Blasio is elected mayor. I heard last night that he's leading among Democrat voters by a huge margin.

How Red is he? well, even the New York Times won't endorse him: they picked Christine Quinn.
Jack Olson -- the figures of migration put no economic VALUE on the migrants. It's likely that the migrants to the "estate tax" states are the lower income variety.

I'd bet dollars to donuts that the well-to-do retirees DO consider the state estate tax when deciding where to move to. Wouldn't you?
You raise a good point, Rider, about school costs. NYC spends nearly $20,000 per pupil per year. Most of this is raised through property tax, which provides more than twice as much revenue to NYC as local income tax. I doubt the estate tax plays much of a part, though, since according to Renn's report many of the NYC emigrants move to places which have estate taxes of their own, including Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and other cities in the state of New York.
Jack Olson claims that retirees leaving NYC would not materially hurt state tax collections, as they don't work. But the biggest single cost for most states is SCHOOLS. Last time I checked, these geezers ain't breedin'.

Many states WELCOME retirees, and seek them out. NC just did a MAJOR rework of its tax law to drew such folks, dropping its estate tax. SC is VERY friendly to seniors wanting to move there. FL obviously has courted retirees for many years.

Even crazy California has long since dropped its estate tax. On the other hand, NY has an onerous progressive estate tax that ramps up to 16% at $10 million.

The state may or may not miss the INCOME tax these geezers paid, but their departure "robs" the state of far more revenue from the estate tax.

Oddly enough, geezers die sooner than the general populace. Go figure.
Jerry Seinfeld once joked: “My parents turned 65 this year so they had to move to Florida, it’s a state law”. Demographics are all the journalistic rage nowadays but the issue is really about money – big surprise right? One major dillemma with these wealthier ex-pat seniors – and if they weren’t well-off they wouldn’t move – is that they take their fortunes with them in the U-Haul.

Here in California, the hot topic among older workers is when are they going to retire and to which state will they move (and, by the way, New York isn’t among the top 50 states considered desirable for those golden years). They spent 30 or 40 years amassing wealth in the Golden State but who gets to tax the future revenue stream when they cash out their 401-k’s, their stocks, their bonds and their annuities? California would like to shake them down for state income taxes but the old geezers have to reside here while the shake down occurs. However, these smarmy oldsters will try to beat the taxman by moving to Texas which lacks a state income tax, good luck with that – California requires you to be gone two years before they consider you out of reach for various resident taxes – pity, as they say up in Sacramento.

For young people, the problem is finding work and an exciting place to live at the same time, some night life, some city delights and other young people to share it with – human mating practices being what they are. Bad news for the rust belt region. If you live in the Detroit metro area you may depart directly from Ann Arbor, home to University of Michigan, for New York City – marvelous for NYC, tough for Michigan. Chicago and San Francisco are popular post-college destinations as well. Michigan is alarmed; a “brain drain” is just more bad news to a state afflicted with constant bad news. Great universities there but parents, who also happen to be university supporting taxpayers, hoped their kids would return to the old neighborhoods, the houses are affordable but who wants to admit they’re from Detroit – even if they mean the surrounding suburbs? So good luck to Michigan, looks like foreign student enrollments will have to increase once again.

California’s young adults leave for a different reason however. Who can afford a starter home selling for a mere half million dollars in a so-so neighborhood? Got a degree in education from Berkeley, better look for a teaching position in Oklahoma or Illinois where you can buy a home before you turn 50. Take away the wealthier oldsters and the young hard chargers and what have you got left – a money drain, a brain drain and a dismal future supporting those poor seniors who had no choice but to remain.
Yes, but were they native New Yorkers?
It's the Democratic way - use high taxes,burdensome regulations and private sector policies to drive away Republicans, and consolidate power, make up the population loss by importing malleable uneducated third world immigrants. Of course, this time honed strategy isn't limited to New York, it is used effectively elswhere as well - California was transformed from red to blue using it, and if the Senate amnesty passes Texas and the rest of the southwest will quickly become blue as well. Once that happens the newly blue state governments will adopt the same laws designed to chase out Republicans.

The fact that the country as a whole, and individual groups such a blacks suffer mightily as a result of Democratic policies means nothing - all that matters is power, especially the power to dole out patronage. Democrats are never about doing the right thing, there is always a power motive, and behind that there is money, money and privilege. But, those who live under the boot heel of the Democratic machine are conditioned practically since birth not to understand what is going on - some groups even blame their problems on Republicans! But this isn't the place for that discussion.

Thomas Sowell has an article relevant to this topic, about the unintended consequences of liberalism, addressing renters v owners and the Obama administration plans to integrate neighborhoods it thinks are too segregated.

People want to live where there are jobs, where things are not too expensive, where there is not much crime, where getting an apartment or starting a business is not a hassle, where people are nice. Yes, nice. It really does matter when you walk into your drugstore or library, people are pleasant and don't act like they are mad that you came.

The problem with moving is that lots of times it seems like people want to replicate what they left. they move to a better place, but end up voting for the same policies that ruined the place that they left.

My fear is that the US will end up like most of Latin America, where it is taken for granted that all judges and cops are crooks, where there is no rule of law, where everything is crony based. No we are not yet like that.
Good point, F. Silber. If Urbanophile decided to evaluate the effect of retirement on domestic emigration from NYC, one way to use IRS data would be to measure how many of the domestic emigrants are including Social Security and pension benefits on their tax returns or IRA and qualified plan distributions. If a high proportion of the emigrants are retirees seeking relocation to a site with lower cost of living, then Renn exaggerates the loss of income to NYC because the retirees wouldn't be working anyway.
OMG. The comments are getting stranger by the article:

-- "At best NYC may _begin_ the process [of Americanizing immigrants.] They cannot do much more than that because New Yorkers just aren't very American."

-- "It would be interesting to learn some statistics, current, that indicate how many are leaving New York City due to the rather restrictive laws regarding personal security and rising crime. Particularly since it seems most of those emigrating seem to be headed to locales with far more favourable laws in that regard: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas."

-- "The middle class, as the term was defined during my childhood in the 1960s, cannot afford to live in New York anymore."

Wonder what the first commenter would have said about the Irish back 150 years ago? The violent crime rates in Manhattan and the main residential areas of Brooklyn, Queens and S.I. are lower than for the southern states, though the "war zone" area of the Bronx still pulls up the City's overall crime rate a point higher.

And there's millions of families getting by here quite well enough. We don't think in terms of $36,000-a-year kindergartens. Never did.
This isn't news. The middle class, as the term was defined during my childhood in the 1960s, cannot afford to live in New York anymore. No family with three children can live there on a professor's salary unless some university or foundation pays most of their rent and the kids go to Hunter or Bronx High School of Science. First grade in any private school costs over 36,000.
http://www.thecriticalmom.com
It would be interesting to learn some statistics, current, that indicate how many are leaving New York City due to the rather restrictive laws regarding personal security and rising crime. Particularly since it seems most of those emigrating seem to be headed to locales with far more favourable laws in that regard: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas. It will also be rather interesting to observe changes in these numbers as New York State's draconian and restrictive new anti-gun laws settle in and claim ever more victims, creating criminals where there were none, and who know full well they would NOT be criminals elswewhere.
We sold our house and will probably never live in the NY Metro area again. OUR DOCTOR owned his house free and clear and HE SOLD IT and moved away. His taxes were much more than a mortgage in Florida. People will vote with their feet. The same is true for California to a lesser extent all though there much of the migration is to the San Joaquin Valley. But many are moving to Texas and Arizona as well as Idaho.
"the region continues to take in immigrants from abroad, turn them into Americans, and send them to other places"

At best NYC may _begin_ the process. They cannot do much more than that because New Yorkers just aren't very American.

BTW, I think the bulk of residents leaving for Miami and Orlando areas are retirees. Yes, they're taking their savings and their pensions, but with property taxes as high as they are in the region retirees have little choice. What you would pay for a mortgage in Orlando you would owe in annual property taxes on Long Island -- even if you already owned the house outright.